Riders vs. Lions: West Semifinal

Playoffs are back on the prairies. And unlike the divisional nominees for MOP, this should be anything but mediocre. We haven’t seen the playoffs since 2021… back when we still though Dickenson was a good coach. 

I think this is a fitting match-up to open the West Division playoffs. In a year of wild inconsistency, the semi final features two teams that have been hotter than hot, and colder than a penguin’s tuxedo. (I legitimately googled “colder than” and that’s the best that the interwebs came up with). At times both teams have looked like world beaters and at times like they couldn’t beat their own… err, manhood, if you paid them. The range of outcomes is anything from a blowout to a nail biter and everything in between. My heart has had 2 seasons to rest so it should be adequately prepared for the playoff stress levels. 

The Riders come into the came with a great problem to have. For once we are so healthy that rather than trying to find 45 healthy bodies, we now have so many healthy bodies we get to make hard choices about which ones won’t dress. As of writing this the depth chart hasn’t been released but Godber, Sceviour, Armstead and Straker are available. Be very interesting to see which ones will make the game day roster. Also given, that our season ended with a bye and essentially a preseason game, even our regular starters should be as rested and healthy as you can expect in October. 

Offensively, its time for Trevor Harris to shine. He hasn’t seen the post season since 2022 with the Als. The good news is that he threw 362 yards in that game with no INTs. The bad news, he only had 2 TD drives and they lost. I think he is poised to shine. BC allows a league high 73.8% completion percentage to opposing QBs and were 7^th in takeaways. They are a great match-up for a patient QB that can make quick reads and take what is given. The biggest challenge the Lions pose defensively is their D-line. They were 2^nd in the CFL in sacks and have playmakers across that front. If we can control that (with the healthiest O-line we’ve seen since June) then they are beatable. A strong running attack is the way to help neutralize the pass rush. I know people are clamouring to get Armstead on the roster but I don’t see how you can dress 2 American RBs and a dedicated returner. I expect this to be Ouelette show. He was brought in to be a physical and emotional leader and I expect nothing less in this one. We need to get him going. Call it a gut feel but Keesean Johnson strikes me as a guy poised to find the endzone. 

Defensively we get Vernon Adams (at least to start). VA continues to be a bipolar player. At his best he looks unbeatable. But as often as you see good VA, you also see bad VA. A guy that you can understand being deemed not as good as Brandon Bridge (if you’re new here, I am the further thing from a Bridge fan you can find). The times you see VA struggle, its all about pressure. The good news there is that BC has a terrible OL that allows more sacks than anyone and we have a fully stocked DL with Carney and Lanier back. We need to not just win the line of scrimmage but dominate. Adams likes to push the ball downfield, and unless he chooses to throw exclusively in the direction of Milligan that could be a problem. I mean unless you just avoid watching film completely, odds are you are game planning ways to isolate Lokombo. The better the pass rush, the less pressure on our secondary. I would mention the run game but Mace’s #1 priority is stopping it and Stanback has 49 total rush yards over both games against the Riders. Would not surprise me to see Rourke at some point if VA struggles. That worries me. Not because if fear Rourke this season but we just tend to play well against QBs we game plan for and bad against back-ups. I do expect our defense to try and rip the ball out with all the enthusiasm of that Yankees fan. 

Special teams could play a role in this one. Both kickers are currently playing at a top end level. BC does allow the 2^nd most punt return yards. Be great to see Alford make a game breaking play. Speaking of game breaking plays, it would not surprise me one bit to see Mace call the Lauther onside dribble kick in his playoff debut. 

It would be easy to be confident in this as 3 weeks ago BC came here in a must win game and got embarrassed. Like this level of embarrassing…

 

But while its certainly possible they come in and lay another egg, I expect a much more competitive team. This is the playoffs. I expect drama and me trying to calm my nerves with rye… which only fuels my rage (it’s a vicious circle). 

BC is 3-6 on the road. On paper, we are the better rounded team and should win. Here’s where I get superstitious though. Last week I picked the Riders to win and they laid an egg. The three time previous to that I picked them to lose, they won. It may completely ruin any illusion that there is anything to my propheting abilities but dammit if my pessimism fuels another Rider win then my reputation be dammed. In the words of Moe Szyslak “I’ve done stuff I ain’t proud of. And the stuff I am proud of is disgusting”. So for the greater good... 

BC by a Sean Whyte FG.