Riders vs. Bombers: West Final 2024

It’s the biggest football game for the Riders since 2021. The two top teams in the West clash on Saturday. The winner gets a plane ticket to Vancouver and a shot at the Grey Cup. The loser gets a plane ticket home and the boos and jeers of opposing fans (and possibly their own). 

Both teams took very different paths to get here. The Bombers started off 2-6 before turning things around and going 8-1 down the stretch on route to a very wind-aided first place finish. The Riders started 5-2, took 2 months of and then finished 4-1 down the stretch. At various points of the season both teams looked destined to miss the playoff completely, finish first place and everything in between. 

For all the momentum and confidence the Riders come into this game with, this will not be easy. We don’t win in Winnipeg (I mean no one in Winnipeg can be considered to be winning but I am talking literally). The last time the Riders won in Winnipeg most of the people in 8^th grade in the Manitoba school system were still in 8^th grade. I think this is the most beatable the Bombers have been since 2018 but they are still a very good team and have no intention of just handing us the game. 

There are a couple ways you could interpret the recent history between these 2 teams depending on your biases. You could rightly argue that the Bombers beat the Riders the last 2 times they played and pretty much anytime we play in Winnipeg. You could also rightly argue that the Riders lost the last 2 games by a combined 7 points and that includes a 5 point loss in Winnipeg when we were forced to start Zerr and Jones at guard. The Bombers allow an average of 20.3 points per game (best in the CFL), we have exceeded that twice. We are also the only team to hang 30 on them in the back half of the season. While the Bombers are rightly favoured, this is not as lopsided a match-up as it may have been in previous years. 

The Bombers' biggest strength is their defense. They are what has powered their turnaround. They are as stingy as they come. Trevor Harris and the offense will have their work cut out for them. I don’t think we need to overcomplicate the game plan though. For as good as that defense is they are #6 against the run. We brought AJ Ouelette in specifically for this, let’s make full use of him. Mix in some Armstead but for all the talk of a dual threat rush attack this is the AJ show with spot appearances by Armstead. We ran just 9 times in the Banjo Bowl loss. That is almost criminal and can't be repeated. But we will have to pass, against the best pass D in the CFL. We will have as good of an OL as we could hope for this time of year (minus Reid) and Harris protects the ball better than anyone. We will likely have to settle for more FGs than I would like but in this one, take the points. Best way to deal with a noisy crowd is to shut them up by scoring.  

Defensively we get to face the Most Okayest Player Nominee (4 TDs and playing on the 7^th ranked offense is not outstanding) and Zach “if you sneeze on me I will cry and drop like I was shot” Collaros. Two things are true about this Winnipeg offense. 1 – It sucks. 7^th in points scored, 8^th in passing, 5^th in sacks allowed. 2 – at any moment an offense featuring Collaros, Olivera and Lawler could go off. In the words of Toby Keith “May not be good as a I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was”. The key comes in shutting down Olivera and putting pressure on Collaros. I am not worried about Olivera rushing. He doesn’t rush against us, no one does. But where he killed us was in check downs and dump passes. We can’t allow easy completions and first downs to him our LBs need to shut that down. We need our front 4 to get pressure. Collaros was sacked more than any QB this season. Mostly we just need to stick true to what got us here. At our core this defense exists to stop the run and force turnovers. That’s how we win Saturday. If we can force turnovers we will win. 

I do think special team could play a role in this. Sergio Catillo missed 13 FGs this season and was the least accurate kicker not named Bede (Bede being headed for the unemployment line this offseason). I have faith in Lauther. I would be curious how much fans Bombers faithful are putting in Sergio. 

At the start of this season I had this team on the Cory Chamblin (or Chamberlain as he prefers to be called) arc. Season 1 is about stabilizing and getting back to the playoffs but year 2 is where things really take off. But as this season has progressed you can’t help but wonder if we are on the Kent Austin arc  instead. 

The Riders have been very successful this fall when I pick them to lose so I am not changing things now. But I will say that I am not just picking them in this space out of superstition. As much as I hate to admit it, I do think the Bombers win. We match up well but Winnipeg has been a house of horrors for us (as it is for its residents). Until I see evidence to the contrary I will be prepping myself to open the consolation rye as opposed to the celebratory rye. Game will be a dramatic back and forth affair that will come down to the 4^th quarter but… 

Bombers by a late Lawler TD.