Riders vs. Elks: Scotchtoberfest

Welcome to October, a month that traditionally has been a dreadful period of going through the motions waiting for the season to mercifully end. To steal a Jeff Foxworthy line, its been kinda like opening a present from your grandma. You’re not sure what you are going to get but you are pretty sure you won’t like it. But in a stunning turn of events we have not only rediscovered winning, but find ourselves still in the playoff discussion. In previous years the only time the Riders were spoken of in relation to playoffs was when opposing coaches said “I hope we play the Riders in October as that will drastically improve our playoff chances.”

Saturday we travel to Edmonton to face the 5-10 Elks. Not to bring up old wounds but the last time we saw the Elks they were mercilessly running us into the ground on route to their first win. They are fresh off getting embarrassed by Winnipeg in back to back weeks and hoping a visit from the Riders will cure their losing ways. A few things about that last game. One, despite getting run all over it was a 1 point game going into the 4^th and we did not have Trevor Harris or Anthony Lanier. Two, that game has to be an anomaly. We gave 276 rushing yards. That is 23% of ALL the rush yards we’ve given up this entire season. In every other game we are averaging 66 yards allowed. 

Edmonton is a really interesting team. Looking at the stats alone, you might think this is a top team in the West: most offensive points, most TDs, #2 in net yards, QB with the best TD to INT ratio. Yet they have just 5 wins and are on the brink of missing the playoffs. Its almost impossible to miss the playoffs in a 9 team league scoring as many points as they have. Now their defense is not good and their special teams has been a liability but still… 

I think it’s a mistake to start Bethel-Thompson in this one. Not because I think he’s bad (again best TD to INT ratio, second most TDs next to Bo…  who might also miss the playoffs, go figure) but you look at how the Elks beat us last time. We were so focused on stopping Ford from running that we let anyone not named Ford have free reign of the field. Would you not want to recreate that success? Its obvious in this one that we need to stop the run. Adding Lanier will help as will not having to worry about Bethel-Thompson running. That does unfortunately leave the passing attack, where we happen to be extremely vulnerable. We do get Reavis back which will be a boost. MBT is a good QB and he has talented receivers around him. We are going to give up yards. Gotta hold them to FGs and try and get some turnovers. Need the front 4 to create some havoc up front and force MBT into mistakes. 

Offensively, we will once again try to find 12 healthy offensive bodies and 4 more to cover the guys that will inevitably end up hurt in this one. The good news is that Edmonton’s defense is not playing very well. 7^th in points allowed, most total yards allowed, most pass yards allowed. In their winning streak they managed to balance that off with a ton of takeaways but when those dry up it’s a struggle. Enter Trevor Harris and an offense that turns the ball over less than anyone in the CFL. Hickson should be angry after sitting a couple weeks and looking to prove himself. Let the man run. Yes, Harris is a good passer and yes, the Elks are somehow much worse at stopping the pass than we are, but we need some semblance of balance in our attack. Once again going to need Baker to step up lead the way. Be nice if Emilus did the same. I can see both Sterns and Duncan-Busby putting up decent yards as Baker and Emilus should draw the most attention. Last week our offense stalled lots and settled for too many FGs. That worked at home against a bad Ottawa offense. On the road against a pretty good Elks offense we need TDs when we get the chance. Key will be starting hot. If we get a lead it will be easy for the Elks to start to give up as they see the season slip away. 

A win buries Edmonton’s playoff chances and depending on how Friday goes may officially secure ours. Win the next 2 and we host a playoff game, its that simple. My long engrained Rider pessimism is seeping in. That sounds way too simple and we never do things the easy way around here. On paper, we should win. But on the road against a desperate team that can score points… I don’t feel great. I expected at least one bump on the road down the stretch and this seems like the most likely time.

Elks by a Geno Lewis TD.