Riders vs. RedBlacks: Limping To The Capital

Look, I’m not going to go as far as to guarantee a loss. But… in a matchup where one side is playing its back-up QB, back-up RB, 4^th string tackle, 3^rd string guard, backup receivers, a fullback who they literally signed the day before the game, back-up DTs, back-up MLB playing on 4 days rest versus… well versus pretty much anyone, I am probably not betting on the former. 

We are in tough. Our roster is decimated. Our injured lists contain 13 people who dressed for Game 1, 8 of which were starters. Essentially a third of our roster is out. Add to that we have to travel and play on 4 days rest. Add to that our opponent is coming off a bye and is probably as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season. Again, I’m not guaranteeing a loss but Vegas was giving me better odds on the Maple Leafs AND Cowboys winning championships in the same year. 

What sucks the most about this is I think under even remotely normal circumstances, this is a winnable game. I still really haven’t figured out Ottawa this year, but I can tell you their record flatters them. 4 of their 5 wins have come against Hamilton/Edmonton/Winnipeg. Now I realize the same statement is true of the Riders but my point remains. Ottawa is much improved over last year and definitely a very competitive team. But I sense they will be coming back down to earth soon. Just not this week. 

Let’s start on defense where we are now down Lanier and Thurman. Fully healthy and rested, I really think our defense could have let all the air out of the Dru Brown hype balloon like we did to Cameron Dukes. Fact, no one has scored less offensive TDs than Ottawa and that includes the hapless Bomber offense. The RedBlacks are 8^th in offensive points per game. Brown’s completion % is 7^th among active starters and he has just 6 TDs compared to 4 INTs. Is he good for a first-year starter? Sure. Is he anything special at this point? Only compared to the utter garbage RedBlack fans have been subjected to over the past few seasons. If Ottawa watched film they will try and attack us with Armstead and the run game. He’s a hard-hitting power runner. But I actually think we are better suited to stopping that than a scat back like Leake. Brown doesn’t run much so that should ease the pressure on our front 7 to stay with their gap assignments. Brown may not be anything special but he’s decent and has good receivers around him. We are going to need to generate some turnovers defensively. Ottawa has fumbled a league high 7 times so that’s probably our best chance. 

While Ottawa’s O is nothing special, their D is pretty solid (that's what she said). Their front 7 features studs like Mauldin, Laing, Santo-Knox and Pickett plus rising star Bryce Carter. They have the #3 defense. About the only thing they don’t do well is create turnovers. They are second last in that department. I do not like the prospect of Nick Jones (it’s ok if you are currently saying “who”?, he hasn’t even been in Regina a full month) having to block Mauldin or Carter. So let’s make it easy on him. Frankie Hickson’s averaging 103 yards per game since becoming the starter and an eye popping 7.3 yards per carry. In a roster full of uncertainty, he seems like about the surest thing we have. Lean on him. Given our injury situation, I understand a more cautious approach but I’ve been surprised how little Patterson (a noted runner) has actually run. It’s nice that as a young QB he is always keeping his eyes down field and looking to throw (usually need to beat that into mobile qbs) but there’s usually 3-4 times a game where he would be better off to run. With what is approaching a preseason O-line, this may be the game to use those legs a bit more. I can’t see Bane have another game as bad as last week so we need to get him involved. I can see Emilus having another bad game so maybe lean more on Ajou until Emilus shows some level of consistency. Patterson is good at not turning the ball over and we will need that to have a chance in this one. I am actually really excited to see Myers get a chance (just wish it wasn’t because we are literally running out of bodies). He showed speed and the ability to make tough catches in preseason. He’s fresh and ready to go. See what he can do. 

Speaking of Myers. I really hope he is on kick returns. You saw last week that teams started kicking away from Alford (who legitimately is our best chance at a TD). Well easy decision when the other guy is Bertrand-Hudon. Myers has the wheels to make them pay.  

That said I think Ottawa has the edge in special teams. They are very solid in kick coverage. Leone and Ward are among the best at their positions and Ottawa gets the ever dangerous Devonte Dedmon back this game. One of the guy playing on teams for us this week was literally signed yesterday. With how deep we are getting into our depth the odds of special teams miscues goes up. 

Based purely on the schedule this would have been a tough game to win with our starters. I think we would have, but not easily.  But if you showed me this roster with no context, I would assume it was for a preseason game. Ottawa is healthy and rested. We are not. That’s all the analysis you need. I expect we will hang tough with them for the first half but just as Rider Nation’s hopes start to flicker, they will run out of gas in the second half. 

RedBlacks 30 – Riders 13