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Remember back in the post 9/11 era when the US was so
angry at countries that wouldn’t support them that they encouraged people to
stop using those country’s names in food? French Fries became Freedom Fries.
Turkey became Liberty Bird. This is the kind of quality useless information I
have floating around in my brain. I could use that space for things like
learning a new skill or remembering my anniversary but instead I use it for
things like liberty bird, Simpsons quotes and Intercontinental champions of the
early 90s. I’m good with my choice. By the way if the current US administration
tried a campaign to rename food/drinks for political reasons would that make
Black Russian a "Bad Guy Ally"? OK enough of my poor attempts at political
satire. Onto the game.
This is a big one. Bigger than the obligatory turkey
TSN will show between Rob Black and Duane Forde as Black lamely comments about Forde
eating the whole thing. A victory puts us 3 games up on Edmonton. A victory of
8 points or more means that Edmonton is guaranteed to finish below us in the
standings and leaves us 1 win away from clinching a home playoff game. A loss
drops us right back into the middle of an “anything can happen” scenario in the
west. We have built up some breathing room, it would be nice to keep it.
Our defense really needs a bounce back game. I get
that they allowed less than 200 yards in Montreal but they have been okay at
best over the past 3 games. Definitely not dominant. And dominant is what you
need if you want to take down Mike Reilly. He leads every pretty much offensive
statistic. But as good as he is, he’s been struggling of late. After starting 5-2 the Esks have dropped 5 of
7 since. Reilly threw 6 INTs through the first 7 games but 5 INTs in just the last 4
games. The last 2 games have been especially brutal: 1 TD to 3 INTs; shut out
in 5 out of 8 quarters with just 18 total points. To their credit the Esks have
taken the appropriate remedial steps and fired their Special Teams Coordinator.
Its his fault their O-line has allowed the 3rd most sacks, its his
fault the Esks have turned the ball over more than any team. With the headset
and Gatorade jug having already taken the fall, Jason Maas needed a new scapegoat.
Its unclear at this point if Duke Williams plays. If he doesn’t a massive hole
for an already struggling unit. If Duke sits, between him and Walker that 18 TDs
and 2200 yards gone… or put differently, over 50% of Reilly’s production.
We need to dominate the line of scrimmage in this
one. Take away the run and put Reilly under duress. We also need to stay
disciplined in the secondary. We’ve had too many busts of late. I like a lot of
Matt Elam’s skillset but man coverage is not his strong point. I’d rather him at
safety or LB if Butler or Purifoy are healthy enough to check back in. Last
week, we broke Hughes’ sack slump. This week we break out of our turnover
slump. I’m guessing 2, one of which goes for a TD. In our last meeting, we held
Reilly to 257 yards and that was with Derel Walker playing. The D should feed
off the home crowd and have a performance like what we’ve come to expect from
this group. Reilly will make some plays and keep things close because that’s
what he does but I expect the D to come out on top.
Offensively, hopes are running high after a 4 TD
performance in Montreal. As much as I’d like to believe that was the turning
point for the offense, I’m not yet convinced. If they can produce against a
team with a chance of making the playoffs I’ll start to believe. Here’s the
good news though… Edmonton’s defense is the 3rd worst in the CFL
behind only Montreal and Toronto (not great company to be in at this point).
Two places I think we can attack them with some success. First is on the
ground. Esks allow 5.5 yards per rush, second worst in the league. Keep Mason
running hard and mix in some Thiggy. The second one goes against my better
judgement to suggest but its chucking it deep. Esks have allowed the most pass
plays of 30+ yards. Also, Collaros actually has been very good at the deep ball
of late. His deep completion % is better than Reilly and Mitchell (he’s second
among starting QBs). This of course requires Shaq Evans to continue playing not
like Shaq Evans. It requires targeting Lambert and Moore. It requires not even
thinking about targeting Stanford. Not sure at this point if Shaw stays in or
if Roosevelt returns (likely Shaw) but either provide Collaros another quality passing
option. The key though is balance. He can’t just rely solely on the deep ball
(that’s some of the Esk O's issue this season). We had great success in Montreal
because we exploited some short slants. We need to find some underneath
completions to open up the deep shots. As much as I think our D will step up,
you need to be prepared for the possibility of a shootout anytime you play
Reilly. A few weeks ago I would have laughed/wept at our chances in that
scenario. Now I’m cautiously optimistic.
Special teams will likely play a factor. As much as I
joke about the Esks Special Teams Coordinator being a scapegoat, they do rank
dead last in average return yards so its not like the firing was completely without
merit. You can bet the new guy will throw some wrinkles at us. Given that we
have allowed 3 kick return TDs this season there is some concern. Need to play
solid in this phase if we want to win.
I hope the magnitude of this opportunity is not lost
on the team. Our remaining schedule is brutal. After this we have a road game
in Winnipeg on 5 days rest. A road game in Calgary. And a home game against a
BC team that is not about to go down without a fight. This is actually one of
the best chances we have at a win left. A loss is not devastating but a win is
huge.
Struggling or not, Edmonton is a tough opponent. Plus
there’s that whole “the Riders never do things the easy way” thing. Here’s 2
stats that reinforce for me the way I think this game will go. The Esks are 2-5
on the road with their only road wins coming in Chris Streveler’s first ever
game (and just barely) and in Montreal. Also, the Esks have been horrendous in
the 4th quarter. In the past 5 games they have been shutout in all
but one 4th quarter and produced a solitary FG in the other. I like us at home
and I like our ability to find ways to win (no matter how ridiculous or
improbable) over Meltdown Maas and his 4th quarter futility.
Riders by a Lauther FG
Bonus Stat I could not fit into this write up:
The Eskimos have scored just 4 more points than the
Riders in 2018. Sure our stats are padded by 12 return TDs but I still found
that crazy.
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