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For
my first installment of my team by team analysis of the upcoming Ottawa
Expansion Draft we will start right here at home with the team you care
most about.
Quick
Summary Of The Draft Rules:
- Round
1: Teams protect 1 QB and 10 Imports. Ottawa picks 1 import from each team
- Round
2: Teams protect 6 Canadians (8 if they had a QB taken in Round 1). Ottawa
picks 1 Canadian from each team
- Round
3: Teams protect 6 more Canadians (8 if they had a kicker taken in Round 2),
Ottawa picks one more Canadian from each team
End result
is each team will lose 1 import and 2 Canadians.
One
more note, while Ottawa can select pending free agents, they are unlikely to do
so because they would then run the risk of that FA just signing elsewhere 2
months later. So for example you would expect us to protect Weston Dressler,
but odds are we will not bother protecting him because Ottawa won’t waste a pick on him only to
have him sign back here in February. So my analysis will assume that teams do
not protect FAs and Ottawa does not select them. Stranger things have happened
(I mean Ottawa did draft a dead guy so a pending FA would actually be a step
up) but its highly unlikely.
On
with the analysis…
Round 1: Imports
Players likely to be protected: Darian
Durant, Xavier Fulton, John Chick, Weldon Brown, Tyron Brackenridge, Tearrius
George, Hilee Taylor, Rod Williams, Carlo Thomas, Diamond Ferri, Brian Peters.
Notes:
- Dressler,
Smith, Sheets Maze, McElveen, Sanders would normally be on the list but are
pending FAs
- Uncertainty
over pending legal issues plus the unlikelihood of Ottawa actually taking him
leave Dwight Anderson off the list
- Willing
to bet Riders are willing to risk not protecting Geroy Simon. Odds are slim of
Ottawa taking him (outside chance they do protect him and leave Peters open
instead)
- Age
and uncertainty surrounding his recovery from knee injury likely leave Rey
Williams off the protected list
Who Will Ottawa Take?
Slim
pickings for Ottawa given that we have room to protect the likes of Thomas,
Ferri and Peters. Ottawa could take a high risk move and go for a Simon,
Anderson or Rey Williams (who talent-wise would be the logical choice) but I’m
thinking they go with a safer option and select Chris Garrett. Garrett gives
them an experienced RB capable of starting.
Round 2: Canadians
Players likely to be protected: Brendan
Labatte, Ben Heenan, Chris Best, Chris Getzlaf, Keith Shologan, Dominic Picard
Notes:
- Butler
and Milo would normally be on the list but are pending FAs
- There
is a chance that Ricky Foley is protected instead of Picard
Who Will Ottawa Take?
For
the Riders this will boil down to a choice between Foley and Picard. Whoever
they don’t protect will be taken by Ottawa. With the drafting of Watman and a
veteran line around him, I wold personally protect Foley and let Picard go (as I think Foley has better years left in him) but
I have a feeling the Riders will place greater value on their OL and let Foley
go. Tough choice either way.
Round 3: Canadians
Players likely to be protected: Rob
Bagg, Cory Watman, Sam Hurl, Zach Evans, Dan Clark, Scott McHenry
Who Will Ottawa Take?
In
the 3rd round Ottawa is essentially looking for a special teamer/depth
guy… Tristan Black fits that description perfectly and I could see him as our 3rd
and final loss.
Minus
the loss of Picard or Foley this will overall be a fairly low impact event for
the Riders in all likelihood.
5 comments:
Steinhauer over Bagg, who IMO has greater value than someone like Bagg. I mean I love Bagg in all but the dude is one major injury in likely hood having his career over, maybe not how tough the SOB, but still like I said earlier the kid from Moose Jaw has greater than Bagg.
I like Steinhauer but for me it boils down to replaceability. While I hope that Steinhauer becomes a fixture on the prairies it is easier to find a special teamer/long snapper than a starting receiver (even if it is just the wide side out). Also odds are slimmer that Ottawa takes Steinhauer for those same reasons.
Either way I don't see either of those guys going anywhere.
Don't underestimate the impact of Ottawa wanting a few french speaking players. They will draw fans from the other side of the river, have a francophone GM, and are looking at a franco coach. Picard is a lock.
Mark - I agree that if Picard is available they will take him. Only question now is do we value Picard or FOley more?
Other francophone to watch is Chris Milo. He's a FA and you can bet Ottawa will be calling his agent.
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